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The votes of seven key House Republicans who broke party ranks before and a few skeptical Democrats will say a lot about whether the bill stands a chance of becoming law over a promised veto by Gov. Tim Pawlenty. An override attempt wouldn’t happen before next week.
There are as many as 15 targeted legislators, and it would take 90 to trump a veto in the House and 45 in the Senate. Democrats control 85 House seats and 45 in the Senate.
The bill is controversial because it would raise the gasoline by a nickel this year, and lift the new quarter-per-gallon charge 3½ cents higher in coming years. It would also hike registration fees for new vehicles and allow several counties to increase their sales tax by up to 0.5 percent to pay for mass transit.
The prevailing sense is it will take more than the minimum for an override to succeed because no lawmaker wants to be labeled “the deciding vote” during the next election. Consequently, advocates and opponents have waged intense campaigns on the bill. Allegations of low-ball tactics abound, but most have been hard to substantiate.
“There’s so much behind the scenes and thumbscrews and everything else, arm-twisting, whatever you want to call it, going on now,” said Rep. Ron Erhardt of Edina, the bill’s Republican co-sponsor.
Erhardt said he expected Pawlenty to put the pressure on potentially wayward GOP members during a closed-door caucus meeting Wednesday afternoon.
Pawlenty spent 30 minutes in that meeting. Afterward, he said the mood was “cordial and professional” and predicted that House Republicans would uphold his veto. He said the DFL plan was “too heavy a burden” to put on struggling families.
“I don’t support that bill,” the governor said. “I told them that, and shared with them my view that they should oppose it as well.”
Some swing votes were reluctant to say how they would vote.
Rep. Bud Heidgerken, R-Freeport, said he was holding out for a transportation bill that would do more for rural Minnesota, and would decide how to vote during the debate.
“I make up my mind right here,” said Heidgerken, leaning back in his chair at his desk in the House chamber. “It’s always best that way — that way you get changes made. Otherwise, you make a commitment too early, that way you’re not in discussion anymore. This way they need me.”
Heidgerken said Pawlenty’s rigid stance won’t enter his own calculation.
“His hands are tied. Mine aren’t,” he said, mentioning Pawlenty’s no-new-taxes pledge. “And he can’t do because of that what’s perhaps right for the state of Minnesota.”
Rep. Kathy Tingelstad, R-Andover, said the bill has improved as it’s gone through committee hearings and she expects as many as 15 Republicans to vote “yes.” She’s leaning toward it herself.
She joked that Pawlenty could persuade her otherwise if he “has some secret formula that’s going to solve all the transportation problems.”
Rep. Jim Abeler, R-Anoka, is holding out for some changes: cutting a half-cent metro sales tax for transit in half, making the Minnesota Department of Transportation prioritize road projects based on need and spreading transit money around so his district gets a decent chunk.
He said Pawlenty’s position figures into his thinking, but it’s not the only factor.
“I do represent 40,000 people,” Abeler said.
Rep. Dean Urdahl, R-Grove City, said he’s been under serious pressure from both sides. Urdahl is leaning against the bill “unless something radically changes.”
When word leaked out about a recent dinner he had with Democratic House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher, a conservative radio talk show host branded him a traitor.
“We had a nice meal. She explained the changes in the transportation bill to me,” Urdahl said. “But there was no bribes, no threats and nothing that I asked for.”
Some opponents accuse backers of attaching provisions aimed at winning Republican defections. For instance, an amendment added in a House committee on Tuesday could speed up a specific highway expansion in the southwestern Minnesota district of Republican Rep. Rod Hamilton, even though lawmakers usually steer clear of project earmarks.
Hamilton, a second-term legislator from Mountain Lake, wasn’t at the Capitol on Wednesday and didn’t return a phone message. The senator who represents the district is a veteran DFLer.
House Transportation Committee Chairman Bernie Lieder, DFL-Crookston, said the amendment “came from leadership.”
“Any person who is crafting a bill is trying to craft a bill to get the votes to pass the bill. This is what’s happening here,” Lieder said.
Republican House Minority Leader Marty Seifert tried and failed Wednesday to substitute an alternative $7.6 billion bill that would have borrowed most of the money and largely repaid the debt with cuts to state government and welfare programs. He predicted the Democratic-crafted bill would ultimately go down.
Rep. Neil Peterson, R-Bloomington, intends to vote for the bill and is inclined to support an override attempt if Pawlenty bounces it back to lawmakers.
He said his constituents are griping about the dual tax increases — at the gas pump and at the general sales counter — but he’s worried the state’s backlog and cost of transportation projects will only mount if another year passes without a finance bill passing.
“I want to get a transportation bill done. Somebody needs to step forward and take the lead,” he said. “What I’m hoping is that the governor will just stand aside and let it happen.”
On the DFL side, three current members have wavered on recent transportation bills.
One of them, Rep. Sandy Wollschlager of Cannon Falls, has found herself on the fence again. Her home phone has been ringing with people slamming the bill, which she suspects is part of a coordinated campaign judging by the common scripts and odd pauses on the other end of the line.
“The phone calls are 50 to one against,” she said. Still, Wollschlager hasn’t ruled out voting yes twice — for the bill Thursday and for a potential override.
Rep. Mary Ellen Otremba, DFL-Long Prairie, hedged when asked how she would vote this time. She said she is getting calls from constituents on both sides of the issue, and wants to see the bill in its final form, after amendments have been added on the floor.
Rep. Tom Rukavina, DFL-Virginia, opposed sending Pawlenty last year’s bill but voted to push aside his veto at the end of session. Rukavina said the bill’s sponsors won him over by agreeing to a $25 a year gas tax credit for low-income Minnesotans.
Having been pressured and lobbied hard himself, Rukavina said he’s got no problem seeing strong-armed tactics employed.
He said there’s been “nothing illegal or unethical. Is there something political? Yeah. This is politics. This isn’t your local church group — and even there there’s politics.”
