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Published - Thursday, December 08, 2005
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Surviving flu: Pandemic would kill at least 200 in Winona County

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If you think the flu can’t still be deadly, think again.

According to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates, a flu pandemic could spread around the world in a week, maybe two. In the case of avian flu, 200 people in Winona County would die — more than half the annual mortality rate. Thousands more would fall ill.
“There’s very few of us in this community who wouldn’t be touched — a neighbor, a friend or a family member,” said Lynn Theurer, Winona County’s community health director.

Experts don’t know if the current avian flu is communicable among humans, but there are other highly contagious flu strains, and data show a pandemic is overdue.

The county has had an emergency epidemic plan for mass immunization in place since 2001, Theurer said, and is training with nearby Wisconsin counties.

“Can we solve everything? No,” she said. “But we’re prepared as much as we can be.”

In the event of a flu pandemic — a pervasive outbreak in which large casualties are expected — county health officials could ask residents to stay in their homes for up to three weeks, depending on the source of the disease, and how contagious, lethal and long-lasting it is. The plan also identifies facilities where large numbers of people could be quarantined if necessary.

Theurer said that in the case of a deadly flu outbreak, such as the one of 1918, it would take widespread cooperation to keep the disease from running rampant.

“It takes the cooperation of everybody,” she said.

The best defenses against any kind of flu, Theurer said, are:

  • Cleanliness — “Wash your hands.”

  • Isolation — “If you’re sick, stay home.”

  • Immunization — “Get a shot.”

    Some Winona County health professionals are skeptical that a flu pandemic will occur. Betty Damitz, a Winona Clinic nurse, smiled at the thought as she received a flu shot at the clinic Wednesday afternoon.

    “It seems like every year they come up with some goofy thing that people get worked up about,” she said.

    Amy Christianson, a nurse at Cornerstone Healthcare at 62 East Third St., said it’s been a busy season for flu shots. Most people are immunized in November and December, she said, though shots are offered throughout the winter.

    If there is an epidemic, Theurer said, Minnesotans have a natural defense: frigid winters.

    “Viruses don’t like the cold,” she said. “The best thing in the case of a worldwide epidemic is to stay home and let it freeze.”

    Forgot the shot?

    Winona County Community Health holds its final flu clinic from 10 a.m. to noon today at 60 W. Third St. in Winona. Flu shots are $20.

    Cornerstone Healthcare, 62 E. Third St., Winona, offers shots for $17, no appointment needed.

    Winona Clinic offers shots by appointment. Call (507) 454-3680.

    Did you know?

  • Three or four people in Winona County die of the flu each year.

  • An estimated 90 million people get the flu each winter.

  • Scientists who recently reconstructed the genetic code of the 1918 influenza that killed an estimated 20 million to 40 million people discovered it was a strain of avian flu that evolved into a human virus.

    Sources: Minnesota Department of Health, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

    Reporter Brian Voerding can be reached at (507)-453-3514 or at brian.voerding@winonadailynews.com.
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