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The city's percentages of senior citizens and young adults are growing; the elderly live longer and college students are pickier, all factors that contribute to shrinking household sizes and the need for more housing, officials say.
Winona grew about 3 percent, or 819 people, from 1990 to 2000 — Winona Township annexation withstanding. But a 1999 study projects the city will add 450 new homes from 2000 to 2010, and Winona County is expected to increase even faster.
To adequately plan for future housing needs, the city and county have developed separate land-use plans.
Shrinking households
The average household size in the county stands at 2.46 people and in the city 2.36 — nearly one less person than the nationwide average in 1960.
Family size has decreased while median income has increased, said Lonnie Meinke, a Winona County geographic information system analyst.
Home ownership peaks with age, city planner Mark Moeller said, and as baby boomers retire, many will turn to self-owned townhouses or condominiums. This means the demand for owner-occupied homes will expand as a larger percentage of the population consists of older adults.
But the need for additional homes doesn't mean homes will be available. The conversion of single-family structures into rental properties — at least 225 of them — has contributed to a lack of housing for those purchasing their first home, according to a 1999 Winona County development study.
About a third of the city's housing is rental, Moeller said, and there's been a shift of fewer people per housing unit. However, the rental market currently has more units than needed due to Winona State University dorm expansion at Franklin and Sarnia streets, Moeller said.
But changing rental homes back to single-family units would be no easy task, he added.
According to the study, developers and builders say increasing construction and land costs preclude them from building at entry-level prices.
Moeller said local businesses complain about the lack of affordable owner-occupied housing, as well as rentals, for families and young professionals.
Landlords' incentive to provide rentals for the non-college population is low, he said, because they can't generate as much rent from single-family properties as they can from students.
City growth
For-sale signs around town don't mean the city's population is shrinking, Moeller said, but probably that people are simply moving or buying more expensive housing.
Winona's population increased from 24,895 in 1960 to 27,069 in 2000, which Moeller said reflects the Winona Township annexation, which added 861 residents. A 1999 housing study predicts population will rise to 27,375 by 2010 and 27,920 in 2020. This indicates a need for development, Moeller said.
Most of the city's valley is built up, he said. Of 70 available acres, roughly 50 are zoned industrial, mostly concentrated in the Riverbend area, and the rest are commercial or residential, scattered throughout the valley floor.
"The only place for Winona to grow is south, toward I-90," he said.
Growth in other areas is also difficult.
Daryl Zimmer, the Goodview city administrator, said there isn't much space for development within Goodview city limits other than the Country Meadows subdivision — which can add about 60 homes.
The city of Winona's land use map ideally guides current and future land needs, which might be 100 years down the road, Moeller said. Much of the city's land-use directives were later incorporated into the county's comprehensive plan, he said.
Until 1995, the city of Winona used a 1960 comprehensive plan and a 1981 upgraded land-use component. The city's current comprehensive plan was long overdue and will be revised next year, Moeller said.
The planner said the city's plan is based on projections, which might or might not come to fruition.
But if the need for housing does increase, the city has mapped out areas it thinks are best suited for growth.
The city designates portions of land along County Highway 21, County Highway 44, Minnesota State Highway 43, Highway 105 and County Highway 17 for residential development. It also classifies land use for the valley floor, Pleasant Valley, Burns Valley and Gilmore Valley watersheds.
The plan also suggests extending city services up the Minnesota State Highway 43 corridor. According to the plan, the city could annex properties from willing property owners and possibly address township concerns over lost tax bases by paying a set amount per piece of land for a period of time.
Outside of annexation, the city has growth opportunity in the former Winona Township. An estimated 1,000 acres in the area is suitable for development, Moeller said. But it won't occur overnight. The former township slowly evolves as landowners decide to develop their land, he said.
A large number of homes have been constructed in the 30-lot Bluffview subdivision on Minnesota State Highway 43 and an isolated five- to six-subdivision, called Spooner Estates, along Gilmore Valley Road. Development is just beginning, with a limited number of completed homes, in the Highland area, as well as the Crestview subdivision, which is adjacent to the finished Wincrest subdivision.
"It's a matter of timing," Moeller said. "That land base is not immediately available."
County planning
If Winona's land use plan is "comprehensive," Winona County's is mega-comprehensive.
To determine where future residential growth should occur, county officials used geographic information system software to classify what land is most suitable to development. It includes factors such as how close an area is to residential land, its agricultural and environmental value and whether it has sinkholes.
Underdeveloped land is considered most conducive if it is close to current city services — like sewer hook-ups — and doesn't contain rich farmland or resources that should be preserved.
The county's population — 49,985 — has grown steadily since 1920, increasing by more than 14,000 people since 1960. An additional 1,352 residents are projected to live in the county by 2020, requiring approximately 650 new dwellings. About 1,500 acres would be needed for this growth, according to the county's 2001 comprehensive plan.
County interim planning director Eric Johnson and Lonnie Meinke, the county's geographic information systems analyst, said preserving Winona County's agricultural base was a major component of the plan. Approximately 48 percent of the county is cropland and 11 percent pasture land.
While a family that originally builds a home next to a farm might be OK with their neighbor, the next generation might not be as accustomed to the noise and odor of farm operations, Johnson said.
"The goal is to avoid conflicting land uses," he said.
Johnson said people often don't know rural land takes less in local government services than it creates in taxes.
"Agricultural land more than pays for itself," he said.
According to a Minnesota Department of Agriculture study, in most counties, the agricultural sector provides a significant share of local taxes.
"This is because the cost of providing services to residences is subsidized in large part by the agricultural sector," the September 1999 study reported.
While the amount of agricultural land has only decreased slightly — from 290,627 acres in 1992 to 289,708 in 1997 — the number of people farming continues to decline, Johnson said. There were 809 full-time farmers in the county in 1992 and 744 in 1997, an 8 percent decrease.
Johnson and Meinke said the land map is adjustable, so if landowners in areas labeled for urban expansion don't want to develop their property, the next conducive area can be labeled for residential growth.
Reporter Shannon Fiecke can be reached at (507) 453-3519 or shannon.fiecke@winonadailynews.
